Top National Security Threats in 2026: What to Watch

Part 3 of Cognyte’s National Security Series

TL;DR

• There is no shortage of national security threats in 2026: decentralized terrorism, hybrid warfare, economic coercion, drones, cyberattacks, cognitive warfare and terror financing all demand attention, and AI cuts both ways, arming adversaries and defenders alike.
• Terror financing has grown more sophisticated, moving through cryptocurrency, hawala networks and social media solicitation, often below the threshold of financial monitoring.
• The digital realm is now the front line of homeland security, and mega events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup are testing it under an extremely high threat level.
• Intelligence agencies are drowning in data: massive volumes, diverse formats and disconnected silos leave them fragmented and slow to act, exactly what adversaries exploit.
• Staying one step ahead depends on five analytics capabilities, SIGINT, blockchain analytics, OSINT, decision intelligence and GenAI co-pilots, that turn raw information into operational advantage.
• Resilience in this new era will hinge not on defense spending or military might alone, but on the ability to integrate intelligence, secure digital ecosystems and sustain public trust.

The global security environment is changing rapidly, and 2026 has already delivered unprecedented challenges for national security teams. Longstanding threats, including domestic extremism, terrorism and espionage, will continue to force intelligence analysts to work around the clock. However, technological advancements, in particular artificial intelligence (AI), cut both ways. They hand adversaries powerful new tools while also giving national security agencies unprecedented capabilities to detect, investigate and counter emerging threats.

In this new era, national security will depend on how effectively nations can harness data and integrate intelligence to detect and deter swiftly evolving threats.

We will describe in the following blog the expanding threat landscape, key data and technology challenges that national security agencies will face, and finally, the analytical solutions that can help agencies stay one step ahead of the threats.

Top Security Threats of 2026

There is, unfortunately, no shortage of national security threats. While none of the major threats forecasted for 2026 are entirely unknown, all have new aspects that can make it difficult for national security organizations to neutralize the threats before they occur.

Focusing on domestic security, and setting aside military threats, the top national security threats for 2026 include:

1. Decentralized Terrorism and Domestic Extremism

Terror groups are increasingly operating in a decentralized manner but can still exact a heavy toll.

The Islamic State is a clear example. Although the group lost the territorial caliphate it once controlled across Syria and Iraq, its regional branches have proven far more resilient and lethal. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), its affiliate based in Afghanistan, has claimed some of the deadliest attacks of recent years. These include the March 2024 assault on the Crocus City Hall concert venue near Moscow that killed more than 140 people and the January 2024 twin suicide bombings in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed around 90. The collapse of a central organization does not eliminate the threat. It disperses it.

Terrorist groups have also been quick studies in terms of mastering digital platforms. Decentralized cells and ideologically motivated extremists now easily recruit online, often through encrypted apps or niche social media platforms. They use deliberate misinformation turbo-charged by algorithmic echo chambers to systematically expose users to extreme content designed to manipulate and radicalize.

Key trends for the coming year will include:

• Psychological manipulation through AI-generated propaganda (deepfakes, synthetic content, machine-generated manifestos)
• Cryptocurrency-based financing of extremist operations
• Rising collaboration between criminal and terror networks: Criminal groups provide the logistical backbone that terrorist organizations can exploit to move people, weapons or illicit goods with far less risk and visibility.

2. Hybrid Warfare: How States Compete without Firing a Shot

Geopolitical competition is increasingly fought through hybrid warfare, in other words, actions that avoid open military conflict yet achieve strategic objectives. Countries, such as Russia, Iran and North Korea, have conducted cyber espionage and influence operations to pursue their goals while avoiding direct military confrontation. Hybrid warfare is making conflicts more asymmetric, as adversaries use inexpensive, unconventional means to fight larger, better funded countries.

Hybrid warfare methods include:

• Exploiting illegal or irregular migration
• Critical infrastructure attacks: targeting supply chains, energy grids and undersea cables.

Recent events in Europe show how exposed critical infrastructure has become. In November 2025, Poland blamed Russia for explosions that sabotaged a rail line used to carry aid to Ukraine, in an attack the Polish Prime Minister called unprecedented.

Another example occurred on the morning of the 2024 Paris Olympics opening ceremony, when coordinated arson attacks paralyzed France’s high-speed rail network and disrupted travel for around 800,000 passengers. Whoever is behind them, attacks like these are cheap to mount, hard to attribute and capable of causing widespread disruption. This is exactly what makes infrastructure such an attractive target in hybrid warfare.

3. Economic warfare

In an interconnected world, economic warfare has become an effective mode of coercion. States now use financial systems, trade restrictions and currency manipulation as tools to weaken rivals. Resource control can shape strategic outcomes as effectively as missiles once did.

In 2025, China weaponized its dominance of the global rare earth supply chain in a direct escalation of the US-China trade war. In April, Beijing imposed export licensing requirements on seven critical rare earth elements used in fighter jets, missile guidance systems, electric vehicles and advanced electronics. In October, it went further, extending controls to an additional five elements and, for the first time, applying extraterritorial provisions that require export licenses for products made anywhere in the world if they contain Chinese-origin materials or were produced using Chinese technologies. The CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program warned that the restrictions would “deepen vulnerabilities, further widening the capability gap” in the US defense industrial base. With the US sourcing roughly 70% of its rare earth imports from China between 2020 and 2023, the move demonstrated how control over a single supply chain can be converted into strategic leverage over both a rival’s economy and its military readiness.

4. Drones

Drones are the fastest growing threats targeting airports, critical infrastructure and ports, as well as sporting events and VIPs. They can facilitate smuggling, assassinations and other illegal activities.

Unauthorized drones are exposing critical gaps in airspace security across Europe. In September 2024, four unidentified drones forced Stockholm’s Arlanda Airport to shut down for over two hours, with Swedish police opening a sabotage investigation. A year later, a drone incursion at Berlin’s Brandenburg Airport grounded flights for two hours and diverted eleven aircraft, prompting Germany’s airport association to call it a “wake-up call in terms of security policy.” German air traffic control recorded 144 drone incidents nationwide in 2025 alone, roughly 90% of them near major airports. These disruptions highlight a stark asymmetry: a commercially available drone costing a few hundred dollars can paralyze an international hub, yet most airports still rely on visual sighting from control towers rather than dedicated detection and defense systems.

5. Cyberattacks and Digital Warfare on the New Front Line

Cybersecurity in 2026 is on the front lines of global defense. Cybersecurity is a core pillar of national defense and the threat continues to grow dramatically, as our lives are increasingly underpinned by digital platforms. Attackers, both state and non-state, use AI-powered tools to automate intrusions and create undetectable malware. Attacks now aim not just to steal information but to paralyze economies.

Key risk factors for 2026 include:

• Critical infrastructure (power grids, healthcare and water systems) is vulnerable to ransomware and sabotage
  • Information Technology (IT): data e.g. leaking patient data
  • Operational Technology (OT): security cameras, infrastructure, operational continuity of critical medical equipment
• AI-powered cyber weapons capable of adaptive attacks

6. Cognitive Warfare: When Disinformation Becomes a Weapon

Among all emerging national security threats, disinformation may be the most destabilizing. AI-generated videos and synthetic media blur the boundary between truth and fiction. In 2026, it is expected that adversaries will exploit social divisions to manipulate elections, markets and public trust. Truth will be a strategic asset, and protecting information can be a matter of national survival.

• Information dominance: disrupting democratic elections, sowing disorder and controlling narratives through disinformation

Armenia’s June 2026 parliamentary election offered the most vivid recent example. In the months before the vote, Kremlin-linked networks launched what researchers described as the second-largest state-sponsored disinformation campaign in modern European history, surpassed only by the operation against Moldova’s 2025 election. The campaign, attributed to established Russian influence operations known as Matryoshka and Storm-1516, produced at least 343 AI-generated fake videos by early May, including fabricated news reports designed to look like broadcasts from outlets such as Euronews and Politico. A single fake “news investigation” falsely accusing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of embezzlement reached 2.6 million views, with more than 35% of the accounts amplifying it identified as bots. Leaked documents later confirmed the operation was directed by the Russian Presidential Administration through the sanctioned Social Design Agency. The scale and sophistication of the campaign illustrates how AI-generated content and coordinated bot networks have turned disinformation into a weapon capable of threatening democratic processes at a national level.

7. Terror Financing

Terror financing refers to the provision of financial support to individual terrorists, terrorist groups or non-state actors to plan and carry out attacks. This funding can originate from both legitimate and illicit sources, and the methods used to move money are growing more sophisticated every year. The main elements include:

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain transactions: terrorist groups like ISIS use digital currencies to raise and transfer funds outside the reach of traditional banking oversight
• Hawala and informal value transfer systems: trust-based networks that move money across borders with little to no paper trail, making transactions extremely difficult to trace
• Trade-based money laundering: using shell companies, front businesses and fraudulent trade invoices to disguise the origins of illicit funds
• Criminal revenue streams: drug trafficking, arms smuggling, kidnapping for ransom and human trafficking that directly bankroll terrorist operations
• Crowdfunding and social media solicitation: leveraging encrypted messaging platforms, social media apps and online donation campaigns to raise funds from sympathizers worldwide
• Self-funding: individual operatives using personal savings, micro-loans or low-level criminal activity to finance attacks independently, often below the threshold of financial monitoring systems

Homeland Security and the Digital Frontier: A U.S. Perspective

The U.S. faces a uniquely complex homeland security challenge in 2026, balancing global threats with the maintenance of domestic stability. The digital realm is now the frontier of homeland security, and as a result, threats have diversified. It’s not just bombs and terror cells but cyber influence, supply-chain disruption, digital manipulation and social fragmentation.

In the coming years, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will focus on digital trust, public confidence and resilience against complex, interconnected threats. DHS’s recent “Digital Strategy” lays out how the department will strengthen the way it handles data, cloud and mobile services, connected devices and new technology so it can keep pace with fast-moving digital threats. Their shift means focusing not only on “which bombs might go off” but also on which digital services can be trusted, how are identities verified and how do we systemically manage malicious activity in the digital realm.

Mega events on U.S. soil are amplifying these homeland security challenges. The 2026 FIFA World Cup spanned 11 American cities over 39 days, making it the largest sporting event the country ever hosted, and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics will follow close behind. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin has warned that the threat level surrounding the World Cup is “extremely high,” particularly around soft targets like fan zones and public gathering areas outside stadiums. The U.S. federal government has allocated between $800 million and $1 billion to state and local partners for additional manpower, equipment and counter-drone technology, while more than 400 law enforcement agency staff are coordinating security across venues, transportation corridors and airports. Drone incursions, cyberattacks on event infrastructure, lone-actor terrorism and foreign disinformation campaigns all feature in the threat matrix.

Drowning in Data: The Technology Challenges Facing National Security in 2026

Intelligence agencies today face too much data with too little clarity. Sensors, networks and satellites produce petabytes of information daily, far beyond human capacity to analyze. Leveraging data to protect national security today is therefore exponentially more difficult than it was even a few years ago.

Intelligence organizations therefore face what appears to be an overwhelming, almost impossible task. The threats they face have grown more sophisticated, technology has advanced at breakneck speed and the world has become increasingly interconnected. At the same time, their analysis is hampered by:

• Massive data volumes: Analysts can no longer manually review even a fraction of available intelligence. Creating actionable intelligence from all the information is complex and resource intensive.
• Diverse formats: Data arrives as text, imagery, audio and video from thousands of structured and unstructured sources. Analysts need to generate a holistic intelligence view across all data sources.
• Data silos: Across agencies and even within departments data is held in siloed, disconnected systems, hindering collaboration and situational awareness.

The result is fragmented intelligence and delayed decision-making, precisely the vulnerabilities that adversaries exploit.

Intelligence Analytics: The Solutions Keeping Agencies One Step Ahead

To handle the technology challenges explained above, national security agencies must rely on advanced analytics technologies to expedite investigations. However, best in class tools leverage not only cutting edge technology but are designed based on proven intelligence methodologies to accelerate the detection and mitigation of national security threats. Leading solutions that agencies need in 2026 include:

1. Signal Intelligence (SIGINT)

Signal intelligence (SIGINT) remains central to how national security agencies detect new leads, investigate suspects and build a picture of how threat networks operate. By analyzing communications data, agencies can uncover previously unknown connections between persons of interest, map the structure of criminal and terrorist cells and identify patterns of behavior that point to operational planning. Modern SIGINT solutions correlate vast volumes of communications data to surface anomalies. AI-enhanced signal processing takes this further, enabling agencies to prioritize the most relevant leads in near real time. In an era where threats unfold across digital networks rather than physical borders, SIGINT provides the investigative foundation for understanding who the adversary is, how they operate and what they intend to do next.

2. Blockchain Analytics: Following the Crypto Trail

The rise of crypto assets has made blockchain intelligence a critical tool for tracing illicit finance. While traditional blockchain analytics solutions map and monitor the movement of suspicious cryptocurrency transactions, Cognyte’s BLINK is a blockchain analytics solution that enables authorities to deanonymize a crypto wallet. In 2026, this capability will be an invaluable investigative asset for disrupting terror financing.

3. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Insight Hidden in Plain Sight

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) enables agencies to turn publicly available information into actionable intelligence to stop dangerous threats. Social media, news outlets and online forums are a major source, but OSINT reaches much further. It also draws on commercial and public records such as court filings, property records and business registrations, maritime and shipping data such as AIS feeds, government publications, academic research, publicly accessible watchlists and sanctions databases like OpenSanctions and Interpol Red Notices. The real value lies less in any single source than in the ability to correlate and analyze them, at scale. Using AI language models and sentiment analysis, OSINT tools can flag incitement to violence, detect coordinated influence campaigns, surface hidden connections across these sources. For intelligence analysts, the sheer volume of publicly available data offers enormous potential for generating actionable intelligence.

4. Decision Intelligence: From Reactive to Anticipatory

Decision intelligence applies AI, machine learning and data fusion to help analysts make faster and more accurate decisions under pressure. Rather than replacing human judgment, decision intelligence platforms enable agencies to ingest and fuse structured and unstructured data from virtually any source into a single unified view, automatically surfacing hidden patterns and connections that manual analysis would miss. For security organizations dealing with threats that cut across crime, terrorism and state-sponsored activity, this ability to break down data silos and deliver actionable intelligence at scale turns raw information into operational advantage. A leading example of a decision intelligence platform is Cognyte’s NEXYTE, which fuses data from diverse sources and formats into a unified intelligence workspace.

5. Generative AI Co-Pilots: The Analyst’s Force Multiplier

Generative AI (GenAI) has the potential to revolutionize how analysts work by automating repetitive and manual tasks, rapidly processing and analyzing vast data sets, and extracting critical insights to drive investigations and intelligence analysis. For example, an analyst could query massive datasets in plain language, for example: “Show me all connections between suspect A and suspect B over the past six months.”

This shift is already underway across defense and intelligence organizations. The U.S. intelligence community is putting this into practice in classified environments. As Lakshmi Raman, the CIA’s Director of AI Innovation, has explained, GenAI is already helping analysts triage open-source data, run natural language queries across datasets and surface insights faster than manual analysis ever could.

However, generic AI agents are not enough. Intelligence agencies require GenAI-powered intelligence co-pilots that are designed for their unique needs and intelligence methodologies, and that also can be trusted with the confidential and sensitive data sources which these organizations use.

Conclusion: Securing an Unpredictable Future

The national security threats of 2026 reflect a world where data is weaponized and perception is as powerful as firepower. Resilience will depend not only on defense spending or military might, but on the ability to integrate intelligence, secure digital ecosystems and sustain public trust. The future of national security lies in adaptability: nations that can combine human insight with machine intelligence, fuse information across domains, and anticipate threats before they emerge will shape the balance of power in the years ahead.

Go to Part 1: The Role of Intelligence in National Security

Go to Part 2: AI and National Security: Promise and Peril